Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 190.216563 226.185862 269.180586 324.979016 396.394260 486.006659 6.090267e+02
2025-09-21 148.054933 191.247812 248.869690 333.511333 458.523015 643.031161 9.497732e+02
2025-09-28 121.164886 165.418324 229.056314 331.187324 499.170555 781.332710 1.334159e+03
2025-10-05 110.060621 157.703476 230.945156 358.479320 591.098699 1036.449948 2.079214e+03
2025-10-12 100.717657 150.154861 230.501004 380.567826 680.777210 1330.669354 3.152304e+03
2025-10-19 92.384808 142.378247 227.550914 396.650678 764.314886 1658.187577 4.666245e+03
2025-10-26 84.759866 134.338519 222.275942 406.442322 838.102456 2008.883803 6.751560e+03
2025-11-02 77.574062 125.871273 214.507641 408.904797 895.986019 2357.841747 9.481110e+03
2025-11-09 70.283209 116.168607 202.688868 399.645967 921.123412 2628.119198 1.248603e+04
2025-11-16 64.052355 107.609752 191.738406 389.787048 941.439521 2902.488230 1.636275e+04
2025-11-23 58.626188 99.916056 181.379988 379.013603 955.625205 3171.134651 2.127244e+04
2025-11-30 57.488668 100.293872 187.751066 410.854425 1115.484990 4225.643479 4.004969e+04
2025-12-07 54.020115 95.819234 183.384635 415.091147 1191.637234 5013.598102 6.476429e+04
2025-12-14 51.510429 93.003542 182.303503 428.256453 1309.273156 6236.747375 1.223254e+05
2025-12-21 48.235299 88.234109 176.053565 425.312893 1365.002955 7188.875865 2.080493e+05
2025-12-28 47.618213 88.985680 182.849590 463.036804 1616.510164 10234.170571 7.149656e+05
2026-01-04 46.546133 88.615973 186.876370 493.738625 1864.310758 14195.393282 3.428520e+06
2026-01-11 45.101231 87.248216 188.185656 516.195052 2093.668139 19099.520000 3.304893e+07
2026-01-18 43.371078 85.043806 186.998876 529.909285 2291.069571 24836.299638 4.337499e+09
2026-01-25 41.375007 82.023555 183.217506 533.363248 2434.312363 30828.559192 NaN
2026-02-01 38.947799 77.773547 175.553223 520.387100 2464.837397 34910.468824 NaN
2026-02-08 36.701221 73.768344 168.100740 506.601544 2483.442924 39181.433661 NaN
2026-02-15 34.603619 69.952193 160.742332 491.575087 2485.319105 43361.242399 NaN